Declining Fertility and Population Ageing: A 

New Demographic Transition?

Introduction: A World Growing Older, Not Younger

In most parts of the globe, population is no longer expanding at a high rate. Several countries are instead realizing the lowest levels of fertility and are rapidly ageing. The United Nations reports that the world has reduced to an average of 2.3 births per woman in 2023, and in the next decades, further the birth rate is expected to reduce to lower levels (United Nations, 2024b).

 Meanwhile, the population aged 65 years and older is growing at a greater rate than any other category of age (United Nations, 2024a). These changes have put forth a major question: is it a new demographic transition beyond the classical model?

The decrease in fertility and the ageing of the population is not a single occurrence. They are closely related to the economic, social, gender and urbanization changes. This blog presents the theoretical bases of demographic transition, the trends occurring on the global and the Indian scale and the discussion on whether the present trend is an indicator of the new demographic step.

Understanding the Demographic Transition

Frank Wallace Notestein (1902-1983) was an American demographer and the founding director of the Office of Population Research of Princeton University. He is known to have been the one who came up with the theory of demographic transition, which indicates the reason behind the high and low birth and death rates.

Frank W. Notestein was the first to really lay out the idea of demographic transition. He looked at how, as societies industrialize, both birth rates and death rates drop from high to low. In the classic Demographic Transition Model, countries go through four main stages:

·       High stationary (high fertility and mortality)

·       Early expanding (high fertility, declining mortality)

·       Late expanding (declining fertility)

·       Low stationary (low fertility and mortality) (Population Division, 2024)

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Model-of-demographic-transition_fig1_351718866

Nevertheless, today the fertility rate in many developed nations is much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. This has contributed to the theory of the Second Demographic Transition theorized by Ron Lesthaeghe and is marked by later marriage, cohabitation, individualism and very low fertility rates (Ron Lesthaeghe, n.d.).

Therefore, the demographic trends of the modern world might not be well explained by the classical four-stage model.

International Trends of Reducing Fertility

Decline in fertility is now almost a universal process. The World Bank notes that over fifty percent of the world is made up of countries whose fertility rate is below replacement rate (World Bank Open Data, 2023).

Japan and South Korea are among the East Asian countries that have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world and in the last few years, South Korea has a lower fertility rate of below 1.0 (OECD, 2023). Other European nations such as Italy and Germany also experience low fertility rates and decline in natural population (Eurostat Demography Data, 2025).

Rapid fertility decline is also being witnessed even in developing countries. According to the National Family Health Survey-5, in India, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased to replacement level. This is a drastic change of the high fertility rates of seventies (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2021).

Among determinants of fertility, there are:

·       Education of females and their involvement in work.

·       Urbanization

·       Increase in cost of living and raising children.

·       Access to contraception  (Dr. Natalia Kanem, 2023)

The Age of Population Ageing

The percentage of the aged population is on the rise as the fertility and life span are lowering. According to the reports of the World Health Organization one out of six individuals all over the world will be older than 65 by 2050 (World Health Organization, 2025).

In Japan the ratio of old age dependency is very high with almost 30 percent of the population aged 65 and above Europe is also a high dependency country (United Nations, 2024a). In the meantime, India is in the process of getting old; the proportion of the ageing population will increase twofold by 2050 (United Nations, 2024b).

Ageing in population changes the age structure, which raises the old-age dependency ratio and strains the pension systems, healthcare infrastructure and the labor markets.

Is it a new Demographic Transition?

The classical demographic transition gave a forecast on stabilization at low mortality and fertility. But current very low fertility (under 1.5 in most countries) points to the possibility of transition to a fifth stage; population decline and faster ageing.

Other scholars suggest that a post-transition stage is being experienced that is characterized by:

·       Shrinking workforce

·       Rising median age

·       Negative natural increase

·       Migration as demographic compensation.

The Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) emphasizes that the slowdown in the economic growth of ageing economies will only be countered by productivity or migration to fill labour deficits (OECD, 2023).

Governments in some countries such as Japan and Germany have designed pro-natalist policies such as child allowances and parental leave incentives. Nevertheless, it has been shown that these policies do not have significant effects of turning ultra-low fertility around (OECD Family Database, 2024).

Contemporary Relevance and Policy Challenges

The falling number of births and growing older present several policy issues:

·       Pension sustainability

·       Growth in healthcare expenditure.

·       Labor shortages

·       Intergenerational inequality

In the case of developing nations such as India, it is a two-fold problem, taking advantage of the population bonus and planning ahead regarding ageing. The National Population Policy (2000) of the Government of India was geared towards the realization of replacement-level fertility.

Migration is becoming more and more accepted as the way to solve the issue of demographic imbalance in the world. International Organization of Migration stresses the importance of controlled migration in solving the problem of workforce deficiency (World Migration Report, 2024).

Demographic transition, therefore, is not only a decline in fertility today, but rather a structural change in age composition and socio-economic systems.

Conclusion

Ageing of the population and a reduction in fertility is one of the most critical demographic changes of the 21 st century. Although the classical Model of Demographic Transition is used to explain the overall trend of high birth and low death rates to low birth and low death rates, it fails to explain the ultra-low fertility and zero to negative population growth rate.

The United Nations, World Bank, WHO and OECD suggest evidence that nations are in a new demographic phase where the labor force is ageing, shrinking and the policy is uncertain. It is still unclear whether this should be considered a new demographic transition, but it is quite evident that it is a stage in the global population geography transformation.

The task that lies ahead is not merely the stabilization of the demographics but the modification of economic, social and policy structures to suit a world where the number of children born is lower than it has ever been and the population is living longer than ever.

References

Dr. Natalia Kanem. (2023). SWP Report 2023 | United Nations Population Fund. https://www.unfpa.org/swp2023

Eurostat Demography Data. (2025). Home—Eurostat. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. (2021). National Family Health Survey—5. 7.

OECD. (2023). Fertility rates. OECD. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/fertility-rates.html

OECD Family Database. (2024). OECD Family Database. OECD. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/oecd-family-database.html

Population Division. (2024, February 17). Population Division | Population Division. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/population-division

Ron Lesthaeghe. (n.d.). The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition—Lesthaeghe—2010—Population and Development Review—Wiley Online Library. Retrieved February 14, 2026, from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x

United Nations. (2024a, January 17). World Population Ageing 2023: Challenges and opportunities of population ageing in the least developed countries | Population Division. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/world-population-ageing-2023

United Nations. (2024b, February 14). World Population Prospects. https://population.un.org/wpp/

World Bank Open Data. (2023, March 14). World Bank Open Data. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org

World Health Organization. (2025, January 10). Ageing and health. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health

World Migration Report. (2024). Worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/. https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2022-interactive/

 

 Mahashivratri: The Night of Divine Celebration

Introduction

"The Great Night of Shiva," or Mahashivratri, is one of the most renowned Hindu holidays honoring Lord Shiva. It is a night of devotion, fasting, and spiritual awakening that is celebrated every year on the fourteenth day of the lunar month of Phalguna. For Shiva followers around the world, this auspicious holiday is extremely significant because it represents the meeting point of human consciousness and heavenly energy.

 What Mahashivratri Means

 It is believed that on the night of Mahashivratri, Lord Shiva performed the cosmic dance known as Tandava, which represents creation, preservation, and destruction. It is a day of enormous spiritual significance since, according to tradition, it is also thought to be the night that Shiva married Goddess Parvati.

Mahashivratri offers believers the chance to seek celestial blessings and transcend worldly desires. Chanting mantras like "Om Namah Shivaya" and fasting are thought to promote inner calm and purify the soul.

Celebrations and Rituals

The holiday is celebrated with a number of customs, such as Fasting: As a display of self-control and devotion, devotees follow a rigorous fast, eating only fruits, milk, and non-grain foods.
Abhishekam (Holy Bathing of Shiva Lingam): Water, milk, honey, and bel leaves are used to bathe the Shiva Lingam, each of which symbolizes a different offering of respect.Night Vigil: Lord Shiva is worshipped in temples all over India during the night with kirtans, bhajans, and prayers.Chanting and Meditation: In an effort to achieve spiritual enlightenment, devotees chant Shiva mantras and meditate.

People as a Resource: The True Wealth Nation

Introduction 

Natural resources like water, wood, and minerals are frequently pictured when we think of resources. However, human capital—people themselves—is one of the most important resources that propel social and economic advancement. Human resources are essential for shaping economies, industries, and society. By being innovative, educated, and skilled, people can change their surroundings and support sustainable development.

'People as a Resource': What Does It Mean?

The idea of people as a resource highlights the social and economic benefits of having a knowledgeable, competent, and healthy population It emphasizes how properly developed human potential can result in prosperity and the advancement of a country. To improve their human resources and, in turn, their economies, governments around the world invest in healthcare, education, and skill development.

Instances of Human Resources Fueling Economic Development

1. Japan: A Leader in Technology

Japan is a shining example of how economic success can result from investing in people. Japan has become one of the most technologically advanced economies in the world, despite having few natural resources. The nation has succeeded in sectors like robotics, automotive, and electronics because of its emphasis on education, innovation, and technology.

                                         https://www.istockphoto.com/photos/tokyo-cityscape

2. India: The Growth of the IT and Service Sector

India has emerged as a global leader in the IT and service sectors in recent decades. Cities like Hyderabad and Bengaluru have become major tech hubs thanks to investments in digital technology and education, which have also increased the economy and created millions of jobs.

https://www.istockphoto.com/photos/call-center-office-cubicles

3. Germany: The Power of Expert 

Work Germany is an industry leader, especially in the engineering and manufacturing of automobiles, thanks to its robust labor force and emphasis on vocational training. The nation's economic resilience has been largely attributed to its dual education system, which blends classroom instruction with real-world work experience.

                                        https://www.gettyimages.in/photos/germany-car-factory

4. South Korea: The Power of Education

Known as the "Miracle on the Han River," South Korea's quick economic growth is mostly attributable to its significant educational expenditure. The nation is home to well-known international firms like Samsung and Hyundai and boasts one of the highest literacy rates in the world.

                                       https://dukeengage.duke.edu/program/south-korea/

 The Function of Health and Education in the Development of       Human Resources

A robust educational system gives people the skills they need to contribute to the economy. In a similar vein, quality healthcare guarantees a fit workforce that can produce more. improved economic growth rates and improved living standards are typically found in nations that place a high priority on these factors.

Difficulties in Using People as a Resource

Despite its significance, many nations suffer from underutilized human resources for a variety of reasons, including:

1. Inability to obtain high-quality healthcare 

2. education elevated rates of unemployment
3. Brain drain, or the exodus of smart people to other nations
4. Inequality of gender in the workforce

     Concept of Spherical Earth in Ancient

                    Greek's Geography 

The concept of a spherical Earth was initially seriously considered and formulated by Ancient Greek scholars between the 6th and 4th centuries BCE. In contrast to previous flat-Earth models in most ancient societies, Greek philosophers started applying observation and reasoning to propose a round Earth. Early Greek thinkers like Pythagoras theorized that the spherical shape would be the most harmonious. They began to use observation and reasons to suggest a round Earth. There are many Greek scholars like Plato, Parmenides, Aristotle, Eratosthenes, and Hipparchis supported the idea of round or spherical Earth. 

 1. Pythagoras - (c. 570-495 BCE)                      
Pythagoras is credited with being one of the first thinkers to suggest a spherical Earth. His arguments were largely based on philosophical and aesthetical reasoning rather than on immediate observation data. He believed that the sphere was the most perfect and harmonious geometric form. His arrangement with perfection led him to assert that the earth, as a celestial body, must also be spherical to fit the cosmic scheme of harmony and order.

Among Pythagoras' strengths was being the first to move the perspective of Earth's shape away from mythological toward one based on rationality and abstract thinking. By equating Earth's shape with the mathematical principle of symmetry and perfection, he provided the intellectual groundwork for future empirical studies by researchers such as Aristotle and Eratosthenes. His focus on abstract and geometry also extended to the wider context of ancient Greek mathematics and philosophy.

However, the weakness of Pythagoras' case is that it does not involve empirical evidence. His assertion of the Earth's roundness came from aesthetic and philosophical principles instead of physical phenomena. In contrast to subsequent academics who presented solid evidence through measurement or celestial occurrences, his theory was hypothetical in nature. Also, His thoughts were not accepted by everyone during his lifetime, as most people still believed in flat-Earth models based on ancient myths and limited geographical knowledge. Nevertheless, his theoretical insights were a crucial stepping stone that paved the way for future scientific inquiry into the actual shape of the Earth.

2. Parmenides (c. 428-348 BCE) 

He was a pre-Socratic Greek philosopher whose writings were mostly concerned with metaphysics and the nature of reality. Although he is not as well attributed as Aristotle or Eratosthenes for the development of the concept of a spherical Earth, his philosophical investigations helped lay the early groundwork for Greek cosmology. Parmenides suggested that existence is a monolithic, unmoving, and bounded totality idea some thinkers read as to imply a spherical universe that is finite and bound. He had reasoned that the heavens moved according to a designed, orderly system, an argument used later to advance the suggestion of a spherical Earth. Though his ideas were more abstract and less rooted in direct observation, they laid the groundwork for later Greek philosophers who relied on logical reasoning and empirical evidence to support Earth's sphericity.

As one of the aspects of his contribution, he was strong in promoting rationalism. by stating that the universe and the Earth as part of it, must be formed by necessity and symmetry, he indirectly helped to promote the notion that the earth might be a sphere a form commonly linked with completeness and perfection in Greek thought. His approach to reasoning was followed by later philosophers such as Plato and Aristotle, who developed the idea of an ordered and spherical universe. Another Strength of his was the challenge to the conventional, mythological conceptions of the world that presented the Earth as a flat object. His ideas influenced Greek thinking toward a more orderly and rational way of explaining nature. 

However, one major weakness of Parmenides's contribution was the lake of empirical evidence supporting his claims. unlike Aristotle, who had observation evidence like the bent shadow of Earth on the Moon during a lunar eclipse, his arguments were mainly philosophical. This dependence on metaphysical argumentation as opposed to physical observation kept his ideas short in terms of immediate an immutable and finite world was rather fixed and thus it was not easy to fit with subsequent findings that highlighted the dynamic and changing character of the universe. As a result, Parmenides had an impact on the intellectual milieu of his period, his own direct contribution towards the idea of a spherical Earth remained philosophical instead of scientific.

    3. Plato (c. 428-348 BCE)

 

Plato the greatest philosopher of Ancient Greece, was responsible for the theory of a spherical Earth largely through his philosophical argumentation rather than observation. In his dialogue Phaedo, he spoke of the Earth being in the form of a perfect sphere under his theory that the universe was an orderly and harmonious construct. Plato's support of the spherical earth streamed from his ideal forms theory, which stated that the sphere was the most perfect shape, thus it was the natural form of celestial and planetary bodies. he also drew upon the concept in Timaeus, in which he proposed the cosmos itself was spherical and the Earth, being central, was of the same ideal shape. although Plato offered no immediate empirical proof for Earth's shape being spherical, his thoughts influenced future thinkers such as Aristotle, who developed them into empirical observation.

 The major strength of Plato's contribution was his ability to shape intellectual discussion and promote rational consideration of the composition of the Earth. His calls for geometric perfection and ideal form gave a basis for conceptual interpretation that future scientists and philosophers further developed. By claiming that the Earth was round during an era when many still believed in flat-Earth theories, he helped push scientific thinking forward. his legacy lasted for centuries, leading scholars in their quest for knowledge regarding the natural world.

The major flaw of Plato's method was that it had no empirical validation. His use of abstract thinking over observational data means that his assertions concerning the shape of the Earth were more philosophical than scientific. Unlike Aristotle, who later substantiated the spherical Earth with observable evidence like lunar eclipses and the varying positions of stars with latitude, Plato never provided tangible evidence. As a result, his work was seminal in laying the basis for subsequent debates, it was not as rigorous as subsequent empirical research. His idealism also sometimes resulted in speculation claims unsupported by first-hand observation, so constraining immediate practical applications of his theories.

4. Aristotle (384-322 BCE)

Aristotle made perhaps the most compelling contribution to our notion of the round Earth by supplying empirical, observation evidence, instead of reasoning primarily based upon philosophical principles. In a lunar eclipse, the Earth's shadow cast on the moon was invariably a circle. Such a configuration is only plausible on the understanding the Earth was round. In addition, he pointed out that travelers traveling north or south observed various constellations, suggesting a curved surface. Another significant observation was that ships vanish hull-first beyond the horizon, supporting the fact that the Earth's surface is curved. His rational and observational method supported scholars for centuries.

Nevertheless, there were problems with Aristotle's model. Through accurately surmising the shape of Earth, his geocentric hypothesis that Earth stood at the universe's center was flawed. The postulate slowed down the embrace of the heliocentric system by more than a thousand years. Additionally, although his observation-based evidence was convincing, he did not possess detailed mathematical estimates such as those made by Eratosthenes, Constraining the exactness of his conclusions. Despite these flaws, Aristotle's work established a solid basis for later scientific thinking and had a profound influence on early astronomy and geographies.

5. Eratosthenes (c. 276-194 BCE)

Eratosthenes, a Greek scholar, made one of the greatest contributions to the theory of a round Earth by successfully measuring its circumference. Employing observation, mathematics, and sound reasoning, he came up with a brilliant experiment based on the angle of the sun's rays in two places Alexandria and Syene present-day Aswan. he observed that at midday on the summer solstice, the sun threw no shadow at the bottom of a well in Syene, but in Alexandria, there was a shadow. By measuring the shadow's angle in Alexandria (about 7.2°) and from an assumed distance between the two cities of about 5000 stadia, he applied elementary geometry to calculate Earth's circumference. His calculation, impressively accurate by contemporary standards, showed the utility of mathematical concepts in geography and yielded robust empirical support for the sphericity of the Earth.

One of the greatest strengths of his work was that it was based on observation and logical reasoning, not pure philosophical conjecture. His application of quantifiable data and mathematical logic made his conclusions more scientifically sound than previous Greek hypotheses that were based largely on aesthetics thoughts. His approach was also reproducible and set the stage for subsequent advances in astronomy and cartography, impacting scholars in both the ancient and medieval worlds. His calculation had flaws, too. His calculation relied on the premise the Syene and Alexandria were north and south of each other in the a straight line, which was not exactly the case. He also presumed that the surface of the Earth was perfectly flat, without considering change in terrain that might slightly impact distance measurements. Although these are small inaccuracies, Eratosthenes technique was revolutionary for its day and represented a milestone in scientific methods of determining Earth's shape and size. 

6. Hipparchus (c. 190-120 BCE)  

Hipparchus of Nicaea contributed importantly to the idea of a spherical earth, largely through his work in astronomy, trigonometry, and cartography. One of his greatest contributions was to develop the system of latitude and longitude, which was based on the supposition that Earth is a sphere. By refining the techniques used to measure celestial coordinates, Hipparchus offered the more empirical evidence for the spherical mode in the form of showing how various stars were visible at different latitudes, an observation consistent with Aristotle's previous arguments. His trigonometric work also enabled more accurate measurement of distance and angel, further underpinning the mathematical tools necessary for spherical Earth research.

Nonetheless, one of the flaws in Hipparchus's work was that, as opposed to Eratosthenes, he did not make a direct measurement of Earth's circumference. Secondly, although he greatly enhance the geocentric model, his use of epicycle and deferments restrained a more precise knowledge of celestial mechanics, which was later remedied by the heliocentric model. Even with such limitations, his work was fundamental in establishing the finer knowledge of the shape of Earth and contributed to subsequent thinkers such as Ptolemy, whose texts dominated medieval European and Islamic geography. 

Conclusion 

The combined output of Greek scholars was instrumental in the formation of early geographic and astronomical thought. Their efforts moved the comprehension of Earth's form from mythic and speculative reasoning to observation and mathematical proof. Their legacy affected subsequent civilizations, especially the Islamic Golden Age and the European Renaissane, when thinkers drew on Greek roots to continue to develop an understanding of the geography of Earth. The writing of Philosophers such as Aristotle, Eratosthenes and Hipparchus showed that science advanced by observation, logical thinking and measurement. Their innovation spirit remains a source of inspiration for scientific investigation today, showing that knowledge develops through inquiry, experimentation and challenging existing beliefs.  

 

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